Frogville´s Weather Service

Updated:  22-Feb-2012 2:10pm 
  Clear Temperature: 77.7°F   +3.0 °F/last hr /hr Humidity: 11% Dew Point: 19.0°F Wind: NE  1.0 mph Gust: 1.0 mph Barometer: 29.986 inHg  Falling Rain Today: 0.00 in UV Index: 4.8   Medium 

000
FXUS65 KTWC 222030
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
130 PM MST WED FEB 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY. IN FACT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO
NRN AZ...BUT THIN OUT IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN SRN PART OF STATE.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FLOW FLATTENS OUT THIS WEEKEND AS
UPPER TROUGHING BREAKS DOWN PACIFIC RIDGE. THUS MILD AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE.

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASSING TO OUR
NORTH DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ECMWF IS A BIT
STRONGER WITH THE FIRST TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE
SECOND TROUGH COMING IN A BIT DEEPER EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK.
WHILE THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF
SOUTHERN AZ...THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES POSE A CHALLENGE FOR TIMING OF
BEST WINDS AS WELL AS DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

THE ECMWF LOOKS BEST WITH THE FIRST TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE PAC
NW COAST FRIDAY...THUS IT WAS FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY AS A BASIS FOR
OUR FORECAST.  ESSENTIALLY WE WILL DROP DOWN CLOSER TO OUR AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING SUNDAY.  TIMING OF TROUGHS ALSO POINTS
TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDIEST DAYS IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...KD

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN MAINLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ABV 20 KFT CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THU AFTN OR 24/00Z. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME INCREASED AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE PAIRED WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS AND IF CRITICAL WIND VALUES WILL BE REACHED...BUT AT THIS
TIME SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO THE WINDIER DAYS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion