FXUS65 KTWC 262149

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
249 PM MST Fri Nov 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system moving across Sonora Mexico will
bring a chance of showers and high elevation snow showers to
Cochise county tonight. Otherwise dry conditions through the
weekend into next week. After a couple more days of below normal
high temperatures, above normal temperatures return Sunday into
next week.


.DISCUSSION...A cut-off upper low is starting to eject northeast
through Sonora Mexico, eventually passing just southeast of
Arizona late overnight. A few distant showers are being picked up
on radar south of the border, and even some lightning strikes
down toward Hermosillo. As this system approaches, good model
agreement depicts shower chances for eastern Cochise County
starting this evening and continuing through the night ending
tomorrow morning. Winds have relaxed and they don`t figure to be
much of a factor for the remainder of the forecast period.

Ridging builds in over the next few days, allowing temperatures to
warm back up above normal starting Sunday and continuing next
week. The pattern remains a little messy with models depicting a
pair of upper-lows situated to our southwest, but the impacts are
minimal. We`re back to persistent warm and dry weather, much as
one would expect during La Nina.


.AVIATION...Valid through 28/00Z.
SCT mid to upper-level cloud cover from KTUS, increasing as you
head east toward the NM border. SHRA develops for eastern Cochise
County this evening with occasional cloud decks down to around
6-8k ft MSL, drying out by tomorrow morning. SFC winds variable in
direction and mainly less than 10 kts through the period.
Aviation not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A system across Sonora Mexico will bring a chance
of showers and high elevation snow showers to eastern portions of
Cochise county. Conditions become dry across the entire forecast
area by tomorrow morning, continuing through next week.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler with higher humidity levels
through the next seven days. An easterly breeze is expected today
and again Sunday into Monday.




Fire Weather....Howlett

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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion