FXUS65 KTWC 310943

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
242 AM MST Tue Jan 31 2023

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system near northern Baja this morning will
track east across Mexico through Wednesday. This will bring a threat
of showers to different parts of southern Arizona at different
times, today through Wednesday. Cooler temperatures will also spread
over the area through Wednesday. Dry conditions with a warming trend
is then expected Thursday through the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...A storm system located in the vicinity of northern
Baja early this morning will track slowly east across northern
Mexico through Wednesday. Some bands of rain associated with this
system had moved into the Colorado River Valley around Yuma and as
far east to western Pima county near Ajo. The latest models
gradually shift some of this rain eastward across the area today and
tonight with the best chance of measureable precipitation from
Tucson to Nogales westward to Ajo. The snow level will remain above
6000 feet through Wednesday with generally light snow accumulations
expected. Precipitation chances will shift to the east on Wednesday
with most of the shower activity lingering across Cochise county
through Wednesday evening. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will drop
down to below normal readings today into at least Thursday.
Thereafter, ensembles favored a quick warming trend Friday into the


.AVIATION...Valid through 01/12Z.
VCSH will be possible at KTUS and KOLS after 31/15z along with SCT-
BKN clouds at 3k-6k ft AGL. Winds will shift back to the southwest
once again after 31/17z at speeds of 7-10 kts for KTUS/KOLS with
slightly higher winds for KDUG at 10-14 kts gusting 18-23kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A weather system will move slowly across the region
into Wednesday. This system will bring cooler temperatures, a chance
of precipitation and higher RH values. Any precipitation that does
occur with this system is expected to be light except across central
and western Pima county where up to half an inch is possible. Dry
and warmer conditions will return late in the week through the
upcoming weekend. There is some potential for another weather system
early next week.




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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion