FXUS65 KTWC 230843

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
143 AM MST Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry conditions with breezy afternoons at times
this week. Temperatures will remain near or slightly above average
for late May. A ridge of high pressure should bring hotter
temperatures early next week with Tucson making another run at 100.


.DISCUSSION...We`ll continue to see a broad zonal to southwesterly
flow at the base of a large scale mean trough position through
western states as a series of impulses pass to our north. With
high pressure over much of Mexico, the resulting gradient between
these features will bring us breezy afternoons into the weekend.
Saturday may see the strongest winds.

Ensemble means continue to advertise positive height anomalies
early next week as Tucson makes another run at it`s first 100
degree day around Tuesday or so. It`s not out of the question that
we sneak it in on Monday as the ridge builds up into the desert
southwest. Seasonably dry until further notice.


.AVIATION...Valid through 24/12Z.
SKC. WLY SFC winds 12-18 kts this afternoon with gusts up to 25
kts. Then light and variable overnight and early morning.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with breezy afternoons at times
into this coming weekend, especially Saturday. Minimum RH values
bottoming out in the single digits in valleys with poor to fair
overnight recoveries. Some areas in southeast Cochise County and
along the AZ/NM border could see localized and brief critical fire
weather conditions. Temperatures near typical values for late
May, with hotter afternoons possible early next week.




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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion