FXUS65 KTWC 272120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
220 PM MST Sat May 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will continue into early next week
with seasonable late May temperatures. Winds will be breezy at
times during the afternoon.


.DISCUSSION...Surface observations across Southeast Arizona have
started to show the southwesterly to westerly flow with speeds
12-20 mph with gusts getting up to 30 mph. The stronger winds are
mainly felt in the eastern counties. The stronger winds didn`t
materialized as expected. The upper level trough along the western
states has been bringing about the southwesterly flow but the 700
mb winds are at 20 knots and the 850 mb at 15 knots. This
translate to mainly breezy conditions with the gusts. If the
midlevel winds were a little stronger due a tighter pressure
gradient, we may have seen those stronger sustained winds and
gusts up to 35 mph or higher. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning has
been cancelled due to the winds did not fully meet the criteria.
Still, there will be breezy conditions with localized areas of
stronger gusts through the rest of the afternoon. Locally and
brief critical fire weather conditions is still possible for the
rest of the afternoon. Once the sun goes down for the night, the
winds will calm down throughout the night.

As for the rest of the Memorial Day weekend, the troughiness of
the upper level pattern will remain over the region and will
continue to bring that southwesterly to westerly winds with the
occasional afternoon gusts. Temperatures will remain near seasonal
normals to the end of the holiday weekend.

Later in the week, the trough will be sticking around and it will
bring temperatures down a few degrees below seasonal normals. As
of now, Thursday seems to be the coolest day of the week with
Tucson being around 90 degrees. A cooler way to start the month
of June.


.AVIATION...Valid through 29/00Z.
FEW-SCT mid-level clouds AOA 15k-18k ft MSL for KALK-KDUG through
28/01Z and clearing to SKC for all TAF sites through the
remainder of the period. SFC winds WLY-SWLY at 15-20 kts with
gusts up to 30 kts through 28/03Z. For the overnight hours, SELY
SFC winds with wind speeds under 10 kts. WLY-SWLY winds return
after 28/18Z with speeds of 10-15 kts with the occasional gust.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Very dry conditions will prevail through the
weekend and into the new week. Min RHs will be in the single
digits for the lower elevations and in the lower twenties for the
higher elevations. Breezy to locally windy conditions expected
today with southwesterly to westerly 20ft winds 12-18 mph with
gusts up to 25-30 mph. Eastern zones can have brief and locally
critical fire weather conditions through the rest of the
afternoon. Tomorrow and first half of the week, 20ft winds will
taper down to 10-15 MPH from the southwest with the occasional
afternoon gusts.





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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion