Frogville´s Weather Service

Updated:  09-Jul-2026 10:25am 
  Clear Temperature: 102.9°F   +5.7°F/hr Humidity: 23% Dew Point: 58.0°F Wind: SW  1.0 mph Gust: 2.0 mph Barometer: 29.721 inHg  Steady Rain Today: 0.00 in UV Index: 8.3   Very High 

098
FXUS65 KTWC 091601
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
900 AM MST Thu Jul 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected today and Friday, with the potential for an increase in
storm coverage over the weekend. Hot temperatures again today,
lowering over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...No real changes to the forecast again today. The two
main weather impacts continue to be the hot temperatures/Extreme
Heat and thunderstorm chances. High temperatures will top out 4-7
degrees above normal and the Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect
until 8 pm MST this evening. For more information on this product,
please refer to PHXNPWTWC.

Blended total precipitable water satellite imagery shows PW values
ranging from 0.80" in the White Mountains to 1.25" along the
International Border. The CAMS show the extent of the convective
activity today will be a little further east than yesterday, or
roughly east of a Safford to Tucson to Nogales line. The Sky Island
Mountains and White Mountains will be the first to initiate between
1130 am and 1230 pm, working into the lower deserts in the mid/late
afternoon through the evening hours. Steering flow today will be
northeast to east at 10-15 knots. The main threats today will be
gusty outflow winds to 45+ mph, blowing dust along Interstate 10 in
Cochise County, as well as brief localized heavy rainfall with the
strongest storms. SPC has the eastern half of the forecast area
under marginal risk for severe wind gusts, with the highest threat
of wind gusts to 50+ knots SE/S of Tucson. WPC also has a portion of
our area in Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall, mainly the western
portion of Cochise County, Santa Cruz County and the eastern half of
Pima County.

The current forecast is on track. No planned updates to the
grids/text products. For more information on the latter periods of
the forecast, please refer to PREV DISCUSSION section below.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 10/18Z.
Generally clear skies/SKC conditions becoming FEW-SCT (locally BKN)
at 8k-11k ft AGL aft 09/18z with ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA mainly east
of a KE77 to KTUS to KOLS line. There is the potential for outflow
winds up to 45 kts between 09/21Z and 10/03Z. Clouds and storms
diminishing after 10/04z. Outside of any thunderstorm outflows, SFC
wind less than 12 kts, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the
afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other
times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal high temperatures (4-7 degrees) today,
with highs lowering to around normal over the upcoming weekend.
Gusty northwest winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph in the
Gila River Valley Friday afternoon Friday afternoon/early evening.
Min RH values in the lower elevations in the 13-20 percent range
through Friday, increasing 5-10 percent by late in the weekend into
early next week. Outside of any thunderstorm outflow winds, 20-foot
winds will generally be less than 15 mph into early next week except
for the Gila River Valley on Friday. There will be a daily chance of
showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon/evening hours
through Friday. Increasing thunderstorm chances and coverage are
expected over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...//ISSUED AT 322 AM MST//
Satellite imagery this morning showed debris clouds over across
eastern half of forecast area, which will slowly diminish through
sunrise. Satellite derived PWATs were between 1" and 1.40". Last
nights upper air plots placed the monsoon high west of nrn Baja with
SE AZ on eastern flank of this high.

For today, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening with main threats being strong gusty outflow
winds, blowing dust and localized flash flooding. HREF has 10%+
neighborhood probability (25 miles) of 50 kts for areas mainly E and
S/SW of Tucson. SPC has most of the eastern half of the forecast
area under marginal risk for severe wind gusts. Some of the stronger
cells will also be capable of localized heavy rain with rain rates
up to 1"/hr leading to localized flash flooding.
The main areas of concern for this will be Santa Cruz county and SW
Cochise county. WPC has this area under marginal risk for flash
flooding. Of interest tonight will be how active will Sonora MX get
and will the thunderstorm outflows be strong enough when hitting the
GlfofCA to initiate a gulf surge.

Friday: The monsoon high will lift into western Arizona keeping the
area on the eastern flank of the high. Storms, some severe, will
mostly be E and S of Tucson with HREF having 10-30% neighborhood
probabilities (25 miles) of 50 kts. Localized heavy rain and flash
flooding will be also concern.

This weekend: With the monsoon high lifting into the northern
Rockies/Plains a more favorable monsoon flow pattern sets up
resulting in an increase in PWATs (1.2"-1.6") and flash
flooding/severe thunderstorm risks. WPC has our area painted for
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Outlook this weekend.

Monday through Wednesday: Favorable monsoon flow will continue daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms with flash flooding and severe
thunderstorms a daily risk.

Temperatures: One more day of the Extreme Heat Warning then
temperatures gradually cool to near normal-ish Sunday into next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ501-
 502-504>506-509.

&&

$$

Zell

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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion