Frogville´s Weather Service

Updated:  16-May-2024 9:45pm 
  Clear Temperature: 76.2°F   -3.6°F/hr Humidity: 26% Dew Point: 38.8°F Wind: ENE  0.0 mph Gust: 0.0 mph Barometer: 29.714 inHg  Rising slowly Rain Today: 0.00 in UV Index: 0.0  None

427
FXUS65 KTWC 162016
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
116 PM MST Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Locally breezy this afternoon, with a few showers and
thunderstorms from central Pima County eastward. Dry conditions
return areawide Friday into next week. High temperatures will warm
to several degrees above normal Friday into early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly to locally mostly cloudy skies across southeast
Arizona this afternoon as a circulation on the backside of a broader
mid/upper low is moving through the forecast area from northwest to
southeast. This has already produced an area of showers (though much
of this in reality is virga) from Tucson and points north and
westward. Not much lightning in our forecast area but we`ve seen
some gusty winds up to around 40 mph with brief reductions of
visibility to around 3 miles due to dust in Pinal County. Given the
lift from this disturbance moving through and adequate moisture
(PWAT values 0.6 to 0.7 inches), there is enough moisture for a
continuation of these light showers (mostly virga) and dry
thunderstorms. The best chance of wetting rains remains in the White
Mountains. We`ll see a continuation of this activity into the early
evening hours before this system pushes to the east and shower
activity starts to wane with the loss of daytime heating.

A return to dry conditions for our forecast area on Friday as
shortwave ridging builds in. As heights increase into the weekend
that will allow temperatures to warm to above normal levels with the
warmest day being Saturday. Highs on Saturday will approach the
century mark for the first time of the year in Tucson, though the
latest NBM probabilities are around 15 percent for 100 degrees or
hotter Saturday. Thereafter, a couple of degrees of cooling starting
Sunday and continuing into early next week with highs near to
slightly above normal.

Expect typical afternoon breezes each day through the forecast
period with elevated winds most likely on Monday as a dry weather
system passes to our north.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 8k-11k ft AGL thru 17/12Z, then diminishing
thereafter. Sct -SHRA/-TSRA mainly from KTUS eastward thru 17/03Z.
SFC winds thru 17/03Z will be WLY/NWLY at 12-20 kts and gusts to 22-
30 kts, with the strongest SFC wind east of KTUS in the vicinity of
KALK, KDUG and KSAD. Locally gusty outflow winds in excess of 30 mph
also possible during this period but confidence in location/timing
is low. SFC winds aft 17/03Z diminish to 12 kts or less thru 17/16Z,
then become WLY/NWLY 8-16 kts with gusts to 25 kts thru the end of
the period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...After some mainly dry thunderstorms today, dry
weather returns Friday. While some wetting rainfall may occur in
the White Mountains this afternoon, the majority of the
thunderstorms will be dry, with gusty/erratic winds and lightning,
but little to no measurable rainfall. Highs warm to 3-5
degrees above normal Friday and 6-9 degrees above normal Saturday
and Sunday, before lowering back to within a couple of degrees of
normal next Tuesday. Min RH values in the valleys will be in the 10-
20 percent range this afternoon and then in the single digits to
lower teens Saturday into the middle of next week,
with values in the mountains between 20-35 percent this afternoon
and 10-20 percent Saturday through the middle of next week. 20-foot
winds will generally follow typical diurnal wind trends through
early next week, with afternoon and early evening gustiness due to
strong surface heating. The strongest 20-foot winds will be this
afternoon and next Monday, especially to the east of Tucson, with
wind speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph. West-northwest
winds are expected this afternoon, with southwest-west winds on
Monday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion