189
FXUS65 KTWC 170911
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
211 AM MST Mon Feb 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Above normal high temperatures today and through the
rest of the week. A weak weather system moving by to our north
will bring elevated winds Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Upper air analysis shows zonal flow over Arizona
with a shortwave moving into northern California and Nevada. This
shortwave will travel south moving through northern Arizona late
today into Tuesday. This system will be dry, but will lead to
elevated west/southwest winds today and Tuesday. Winds will be
strongest along the AZ/NM border and international border in
Cochise County. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
in these areas. Temperatures will be 5-8 degrees above normal
today and Tuesday.
In the wake of the shortwave ridging briefly takes over leading to
a slight warm up Wednesday and Thursday. Highs in the Tucson metro
will be flirting with 80 degrees. Then late Thursday into Friday a
trough moves through Arizona. Still some differences in ensemble
members with the speed and strength of the trough. However this
system is expected to be dry and will have little affect on
sensible weather other than lowering temperatures a few degrees
Friday and bringing another round of elevated winds.
This weekend into early next week ensembles show a fairly strong
ridge centered to the south, which will quickly warm things up.
Temperatures will be in the mid 80s by Sunday in Tucson and likely
flirting with 90 degrees early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 18/12Z.
BKN-OVC clouds AOA 20k ft AGL through the period. Sfc winds
variable less than 10 kts this morning, becoming west 10-15 kts
with gusts 20-25 kts. Winds will be strongest near KDUG, KOLS,
and KSAD. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions for the majority of the next 7 days
with min RH generally 10-15 percent. A few passing weather systems
will bring breezy winds Monday and Tuesday and again later in the
week on Thursday to Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed
Cochise county in an elevated risk for critical fire weather
conditions Monday and Tuesday for increased afternoon winds and
dry fuel conditions. The strongest winds will mainly be east of
Tucson for both weather systems. Temperatures will start to trend
warmer than normal today and throughout the week.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Hardin
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion